CNN
—
A day after losing to “none of those candidates” in Nevada’s non-binding major, Nikki Haley urged supporters in California, one among a number of Tremendous Tuesday states she plans to compete in subsequent month, to stay together with her.
“If you’ll stick with us on this battle, I’m not going anyplace!” the previous South Carolina governor advised dozens of supporters on the Wild Goose Tavern in Costa Mesa Wednesday. “I’m prepared to take the warmth, I’m prepared to take the bruises, I’m prepared to do the battle and undergo the ache – all I’m asking is that you simply stand right here with me.”
Haley has outlasted all of former President Donald Trump’s major challengers and continues to put up robust fundraising numbers, however her marketing campaign faces a frightening, if not unimaginable, path to successful the GOP presidential nomination. Trump continues to dominate in polls of upcoming major states, and Republicans who’ve rallied across the former president are rising extra insistent of their requires her to drop out.
As Trump’s maintain on the get together solidifies, hypothesis has grown about Haley’s political plans – and when she may exit the race.
Her marketing campaign has privately advised allies and donors that the previous United Nations ambassador has no plans to run for president in 2028. That stance is a big issue fueling her dedication to remain within the presidential race for so long as she has the assets, sources aware of current conversations advised CNN.
Proper now, Haley can be eager about the present election and what it means for the way forward for the nation, not what it means for her private future, folks aware of her pondering advised CNN.
“If Trump loses, a door may open for Nikki and loads of different folks,” one supply near the Haley marketing campaign advised CNN. “Her view is, I’m going for broke, even when it could make me unpopular with some within the get together institution right now.”
Her workforce has additionally fought in opposition to the narrative that she may depart the race after a disappointing end in South Carolina by starting to spice up her presence in Tremendous Tuesday states. On Wednesday, Haley introduced her management workforce in Massachusetts and held two marketing campaign occasions in California alongside fundraisers her marketing campaign mentioned introduced in $1.7 million in two days. Her marketing campaign additionally continued to criticize Trump for refusing to debate her with a brand new digital advert in South Carolina.
“We don’t do coronations in America,” Haley mentioned Wednesday in California, echoing a chorus she has made many times since voting started within the Republican nominating contest final month – with Trump securing dominant wins within the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Extra so than any of the opposite Republicans who sought to problem Trump, Haley has emerged with a far increased stature than on the time of her announcement one 12 months in the past. She amassed a nationwide fundraising community, ascended increased than some other Republican feminine candidate earlier than her and enhanced her credibility within the phase of the get together seeking to flip the web page past the previous president.
“She is the choice to Trump,” a longtime Republican pal of Haley’s advised CNN, talking on situation of anonymity to speak about any endgame. “If solely the get together was in search of one.”
Certainly, her candidacy has drawn appreciable curiosity from moderates and independents however did not spark an precise political motion amongst Republicans, given the grip Trump has over the get together.
Even amongst non-public conversations with longtime associates and advisers, Haley is loath to debate the tip of the highway for her marketing campaign. She has vowed to remain within the race by the South Carolina major on February 24 and a collection of Tremendous Tuesday contests on March 5.
Haley has not addressed her future past that.
“She’s going to maintain successful delegates, why wouldn’t she keep in?” the longtime Republican pal mentioned, pointing to the prison costs and different authorized obstacles Trump is navigating.
However racking up delegates solely will get more durable from right here on out. As of now, Trump has 33 delegates to Haley’s 17, with 1,215 wanted to win the nomination. The earliest a candidate may win sufficient delegates to safe the nomination is mid-March.
In Nevada, Haley selected to compete within the February 6 major, which didn’t grant any delegates. She misplaced by greater than 30 factors to “none of those candidates,” a probable proxy vote for Trump, who was not on the poll. Trump is the one main candidate competing for delegates within the state’s February 8 caucuses.
As for South Carolina, a Monmouth/Washington Publish ballot launched this month discovered Haley trailing by 26 factors there, with 58% of potential GOP major voters backing Trump in her house state.
Almost 900 delegates shall be up for grabs on March 5, when greater than a dozen states will vote. A number of of these states, together with California with its 169 delegates, have guidelines that award all their delegates to a candidate who wins nearly all of the vote – one thing that’s more likely with solely two rivals left within the race.
After March 15, states have the choice to award all of their delegates to whoever wins probably the most votes, even when the candidate doesn’t win a majority.
Nonetheless, Haley’s allies have argued there’s a path for her. Her marketing campaign has pointed to what they are saying is a record-breaking fundraising haul in January of $16.5 million as a sign she has the “assets to go the space,” as her marketing campaign supervisor Betsy Ankney advised reporters this week.
Her marketing campaign has additionally pointed to 11 Tremendous Tuesday states that enable open or semi-open primaries, making it simpler for independents to again her in a Republican major. These states current “fertile floor” for Haley, Ankney mentioned in a memo forward of her New Hampshire loss.
In current fundraisers, Haley has advised donors that she plans to remain within the race by Tremendous Tuesday, echoing her marketing campaign supervisor’s sentiment that she may decide up delegates in a handful of states.
“Haley needs voters to have a alternative… why cede that battle after solely a handful of states have voted, when you could have the assets to maintain going?” mentioned Alex Conant, a GOP marketing consultant who served because the communications director for Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential marketing campaign. “Within the historical past of presidential campaigns, nobody has dropped out when they’re elevating tons of cash.”
Haley has additionally more and more talked about Trump’s authorized troubles on the marketing campaign path. Haley has not mentioned that his a number of indictments are the explanation she stays within the race, however she has tried to persuade voters that she is seeking to win over of the chaos and monetary burden he would carry to the get together as its nominee.
“There’s a idea that she’s gaining delegates in order that if one thing have been to occur to Trump – through age, well being or prison conviction – she would then be the candidate that managed some delegates on the conference,” mentioned Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist primarily based in California.
Stutzman, like many, mentioned the first doubtless ends with Trump because the nominee, however he additionally made the case for letting the method play out.
“Why not let folks vote, so long as she is ready to maintain funding a marketing campaign?” he mentioned.
The opposite issue shaping Haley’s resolution to remain within the race is her persona. The previous governor usually talks about being underestimated all through her profession, and people who know her effectively say that the best way she views uphill climbs is exclusive.
“Folks consider Nikki like a conventional politician, and that’s what they get unsuitable: that’s not how Nikki thinks,” mentioned Rob Godfrey, a high aide to Haley when she was governor.
Godfrey mentioned he anticipated Haley to maintain combating after South Carolina, particularly if the margin is much like New Hampshire, the place she misplaced by 11 factors.
“If she exhibits a quantity that retains donors, reporters, and voters – as a quantity within the mid 40s would do – she is just not going anyplace apart from the subsequent state on the calendar,” he mentioned.