Manchester, New Hampshire
CNN
—
The final time Kelly Ayotte was on the poll with Donald Trump, she lost.
The previous one-term Republican senator is giving it another go in New Hampshire this yr, working in essentially the most aggressive governor’s race within the nation.
However the shadow of the highest of the ticket looms giant, with some Republicans within the Granite State worrying what number of Kamala Harris voters Ayotte can win over when Trump seems prone to lose right here.
Whereas Democrats try and nationalize the competition – attacking Ayotte on abortion and on Trump – Republicans are attempting to localize it by zeroing in on Democratic nominee Joyce Craig’s previous tenure because the mayor of Manchester, tying her to town’s homelessness and drug issues.
“It’s not her fault, nevertheless it didn’t seem to be she did something to assist,” Ray Lawrence, 73, mentioned of Craig whereas ending lunch on a current drizzly Friday right here in New Hampshire’s largest metropolis. He likes Ayotte’s report as a senator and former state lawyer basic, and he’s additionally voting for Trump.
Across the nook on Manchester’s important drag, Claudette Laroche, 71, of Hooksett had a four-word response for why she’s backing Craig: “She’s advocating for girls.”
With political beliefs as hardened as they’re, the neck-and-neck race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Chris Sununu will check the endurance of ticket-splitting in a state that’s extra liable to it than most however that’s additionally been trending bluer on the federal stage. Hillary Clinton carried New Hampshire by lower than half a degree in 2016; Joe Biden received it by 7 factors four years later.
“If voters resolve they’re voting towards Trump, I don’t see proof giant numbers of them will draw a distinction between different Republicans and Trump,” mentioned former state GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen, an Ayotte supporter and self-described “By no means Trump Republican.”
“There’s loads of proof that voters know methods to break up their ticket, however that is an open-seat race,” he added, noting that Ayotte – who was final elected in 2010 – doesn’t have the identical profitable report as Sununu, who received 4 phrases, together with two whereas on the poll with Trump.
In her bid for reelection in 2016, Ayotte withdrew her backing for Trump after the emergence of the “Access Hollywood” tape a month earlier than the election. The choice was extensively thought to have contributed to her slender loss to Democrat Maggie Hassan as a result of it depressed help for her amongst Trump’s base.
This yr, she’s backing the previous president.
“As you understand, we had our variations in ’16,” Ayotte mentioned in an interview with WMUR this spring whereas campaigning for the GOP nomination. “However I feel, as we take a look at the place we’re as a rustic proper now, there’s no query that he’s the best alternative.”
Ayotte’s evolution on Trump has been a supply of Democratic assaults – a part of a broader narrative they’re making an attempt to color about her credibility.
“Now that Kelly Ayotte’s working for a 3rd time, she’ll say something to win,” the narrator in a New Hampshire Democratic Celebration ad says over footage of her 2016 feedback in regards to the former president.
Democrats are making the identical argument about Ayotte’s stance on abortion, pointing to sure votes within the Senate, together with a number of to defund Deliberate Parenthood, and her service as a guide or “sherpa” by way of the Senate affirmation course of for Neil Gorsuch, one of many Trump-appointed Supreme Courtroom justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
“An excessive amount of historical past with Kelly Ayotte,” 40-year-old Arthur Lahey of Manchester mentioned whereas strolling down Elm Road.
Ayotte, who has beforehand known as herself “pro-life,” is stressing that she’s going to defend the law in New Hampshire, the place abortion stays authorized as much as 24 weeks.
“I’m not going to alter this legislation, and I’d be glad to make use of the veto pen if somebody sends me a legislation that’s extra restrictive on their rights,” Ayotte says in a single ad.
“Everyone knows what they’re doing,” she says in another spot responding to her Democratic opponents’ assaults. “Politicizing abortion to win votes. It’s incorrect, and it’s not New Hampshire.”
These assertions don’t ring true to Invoice Lonergan, 62, who was out in Manchester on a current Friday throughout a pause within the rain. “I’m just a little nervous about Ayotte on abortion,” he mentioned, holding his younger granddaughter. “I don’t belief her,” he added, arguing that her place on not signing abortion restrictions sounded too rigorously worded to be real.
Ayotte’s marketing campaign didn’t return CNN’s requests for remark.
GOP pushes legislation and order
On the Puritan Backroom restaurant – a Manchester establishment owned by Democratic US Rep. Chris Pappas’ household – two sisters on the bar, each Trump supporters, mentioned they have been voting for Ayotte.
As a result of “she’s a conservative,” mentioned 59-year-old Susan Berntsen, who lamented Craig’s governance of Manchester, which now has a Republican mayor.
Homelessness and begging on the road have been uncontrolled, she and her sister mentioned, making outside eating untenable.
“I simply can’t belief her,” Berntsen mentioned, throwing at Craig the identical phrase Democrats have used towards Ayotte.
“Now, Kelly Ayotte will not be a favourite both,” she added. “We’re pro-Trump individuals, and he or she got here out towards him” final time, Bernsten mentioned, alluding to Ayotte’s 2016 Senate race. “Nevertheless, we now have to consider what’s greatest for the state.”
Ayotte’s ads blame Craig for exacerbating town’s homelessness “disaster” – showing footage of an encampment dubbed by critics as “Craigville.” And so they’ve accused her of making an attempt to raise the city’s taxes six instances. In a state identified for not having an revenue tax, Republicans are attempting to capitalize on fears of the state “changing into Massachusetts,” trying to tie Craig to the commonwealth’s Democratic governor, Maura Healey.
Beneath Craig, Manchester aldermen approved budgets that overrode town’s tax cap – which limits the sum of money that may be raised from property taxes – though that was not a part of the mayor’s personal price range proposals. Craig’s marketing campaign contends that beneath her tenure, metropolis spending elevated to pay for companies as a result of of fewer sources from the state and that property taxes general went down. She has mentioned that as governor she would veto any effort to impose a gross sales or revenue tax however that she does help the tax on dividends, which she argues is meant to have an effect on the wealthiest residents.
In an interview in her Manchester marketing campaign workplace, Craig touted her efforts to get individuals off the streets – together with opening the primary city-funded shelter – and to construct inexpensive housing, whereas pointing to Ayotte’s service on the board of personal fairness large Blackstone. A recent ad from Craig tries to color a sunnier imaginative and prescient of Manchester, with Democratic former Gov. John Lynch lauding superior manufacturing jobs there.
Some Manchester voters balked on the GOP advertisements casting their metropolis in a unfavorable mild, and Ayotte’s marketing campaign even needed to take down an ad final month that inaccurately steered a infamous homicide had occurred whereas Craig was mayor.
However Cullen, the previous GOP chairman, mentioned the broader hits on Manchester’s administration could also be efficient since most state voters don’t stay there. “It’s a type of explanation why mayors have a tough time transferring up,” he mentioned.
Craig, nonetheless, advantages from help from the nationwide social gathering in addition to a strong Democratic coordinated marketing campaign within the state, whereas the dearth of a aggressive presidential race means Ayotte’s operation rests totally on her. She has the backing of the Republican Governors Affiliation, which has not too long ago suggested it won’t spend more in North Carolina – lengthy seen as the one different extremely aggressive gubernatorial election of the cycle – within the wake of a CNN report in regards to the GOP nominee’s inflammatory feedback.
“RGA is totally dedicated to conserving New Hampshire in Republican arms to make sure New Hampshire’s path to success continues, and there’s nobody higher than Kelly Ayotte to just do that,” RGA spokeswoman Courtney Alexander mentioned in a press release. “Joyce Craig failed Manchester and would do the identical to your complete Granite State if given the chance.”
A Granite State poll from the College of New Hampshire launched earlier this month discovered no clear chief between Ayotte and Craig.
But when Harris wins New Hampshire, the most important query is how extensive of a margin would Ayotte want to beat to maintain the governorship in social gathering arms.
If it’s within the low single digits, Cullen thinks Ayotte can prevail.
Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist, agreed: “You may peel off a pair %. Perhaps 3 or at most 4.”
Past that, he mentioned, it’s exhausting.
“I feel if Trump loses by 6 to eight factors, it’s doubtless Democrats will win the nook workplace. Little question in my thoughts.”
CNN’s Steve Contorno contributed to this report.