CNN
—
Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascent to the highest of the Democratic ticket has dramatically reshaped the 2024 electoral map since earlier this 12 months, when the competition between an unpopular and aged incumbent president and the previous president (and now convicted felon) he defeated 4 years prior.
The strikes we’re making on this newest installment of our “Street to 270” electoral map are all in a optimistic route for Harris and recommend she has extra potential paths to 270 electoral votes than President Joe Biden had when he was the occasion’s standard-bearer. This present outlook reverts the state of play to the place it was within the closing days of the 2020 marketing campaign, with seven battleground states (and one congressional district in Nebraska) because the central turf upon which the candidates and their campaigns will dedicate most of their money and time to win the White Home. Within the 4 weeks since Biden ended his presidential bid, these seven states have seen a mixed $240 million in promoting spending, in line with AdImpact, with an nearly even cut up between Democrats and Republicans.
SEE CNN’S ROAD TO 270 INTERACTIVE MAP
Our earlier electoral outlook had former President Donald Trump with a transparent benefit within the quest for 270 electoral votes. That benefit has evaporated with Harris’ entrance into the race and her speedy success at unifying the Democratic Social gathering and restoring political energy with some key constituencies (voters of colour, younger voters, feminine voters) which have been a part of current profitable coalitions for Democratic candidates. Regardless of the momentum shift, you will need to be aware that this race has snapped again to a margin-of-error contest with no present clear chief. Each Trump and Harris have a number of viable paths to 270 electoral votes.
On this new electoral outlook, we’ve moved 4 states from leaning Republican to toss-up battleground standing. Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina have a mixed complete of 53 electoral votes that we’ve moved from leaning in Trump’s route to toss-up.
Trump now has 24 states (and one congressional district in Maine) both solidly in his nook or leaning in his route that complete 219 electoral votes, 51 votes wanting the 270 required to win.
For her half, Harris has 19 states plus the District of Columbia both solidly in her favor or leaning in her route, which brings her complete electoral vote rely to 225, 45 votes wanting the 270 required to win.
We at present charge seven states (and one Nebraska congressional district) totaling 94 electoral votes as true toss-ups as we head into the Democratic Nationwide Conference and the ultimate weeks of summer season.
We must be very clear about what this electoral outlook is and, extra importantly, what it’s not. It’s a present snapshot of the electoral school panorama in what is going to possible show to be one other very shut and terribly consequential presidential election. It’s not a prediction of how issues will prove in November.
We base this present outlook on private and non-private polling; conversations with marketing campaign advisers, Republican and Democratic political operatives; members of Congress; and political professionals concerned with exterior teams poised to be energetic within the race.
As a few of the Solar Belt states (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina) have develop into much more aggressive with Harris within the race, it’s nonetheless in all probability true that her most direct path to 270 electoral votes can be to maintain the three so-called “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and the Omaha-area congressional district in Nebraska within the Democratic column.
Trump’s most direct path to 270 electoral votes can be to maintain all of the states he received in 2020 and flip Georgia and Pennsylvania (two states he received in 2016) again to his column. In that calculation, it’s crucial for Trump that he tries to forestall North Carolina from slipping away, which can clarify why he is making his second journey there in as many weeks and has upped his funding in tv promoting within the Tar Heel state.
Stable Republican: (TOTAL: 188 Electoral Votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
Leans Republican: (TOTAL: 31 Electoral Votes)
Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)
Toss-ups: (TOTAL: 94 Electoral Votes)
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)
Leans Democratic: (TOTAL: 50 Electoral Votes)
Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)
Stable Democratic: (TOTAL: 175 Electoral Votes)
California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)