CNN
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When Kamala Harris held her first campaign rally because the presumptive Democratic nominee final week, one of the vital weak senators within the nation was available to welcome her.
Tammy Baldwin, the two-term Wisconsin Democrat, didn’t attend President Joe Biden’s post-debate rally within the state earlier this month. However her look with Harris signaled the brand new pleasure Democrats are feeling from their base.
That enthusiasm will probably be key to serving to the social gathering defend one of many so-called blue wall states, the place Biden gained by half some extent in 2020 and the place Baldwin must win if Democrats are to have any shot at retaining their slender Senate majority.
However a reshaped presidential contest gained’t change the calculus for Democrats in the most competitive Senate races – lots of them in states former President Donald Trump gained or narrowly misplaced in 2020. Baldwin isn’t almost as endangered as her Democratic colleagues in Montana and Ohio, states Trump twice gained massive. However she’s going to possible have to depend on some proportion of ticket-splitters to win, which even she has acknowledged could also be tougher than throughout her 2018 reelection race given the polarization of at the moment’s politics.
“We’re the battleground state,” Baldwin instructed the pleasant crowd in Milwaukee on Tuesday earlier than Harris took the stage.
Baldwin had spent the 2 days earlier than Biden ended his reelection bid assembly with older Democrats in southwest Wisconsin, recording the “Pod Save America” podcast in Madison and shaking fingers with voters at a fish competition in a conservative suburban county north of Milwaukee – a mirrored image of her have to each harness the bottom and attain past it.
Like many Democratic incumbents this 12 months, Baldwin was already polling higher than Biden. Even when Harris improves the general panorama for Democrats on the high of the ticket – which it’s too early to say – Baldwin’s problem will probably be to maintain up her benefit as her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, turns into higher recognized. The senator and her allies have painted Hovde as a rich financial institution CEO and continuously knock him for his ties to California.
“We’ve a Inexperienced County. We’ve a Brown County. We don’t have an Orange County, Wisconsin,” she says on the stump, citing Hovde beforehand being named one of the most influential people within the Southern California county. However Hovde, who Republicans imagine is a extra formidable challenger than Baldwin’s 2018 opponent, has hundreds of thousands of his personal cash to spend.
Brandon Scholz, a former government director of the state Republican Social gathering, doesn’t see Baldwin’s numbers altering a lot simply because Harris is operating.
“I believe Republicans have underestimated Baldwin through the years,” he stated Friday when requested about her potential to overperform the highest of the ticket. “She has a really liberal voting report in Washington, no query about it. However she additionally spends time in Wisconsin and has some Wisconsin-centric laws that she has pushed.”
However he cautioned that it’s nonetheless early within the marketing campaign; voters aren’t tuned in but; and Baldwin has been operating for much longer than Hovde, who entered the race in February.
“It’s gonna take him time to shut that hole,” he stated. “And he’s bought 100 days to do it.”
Spectators ultimately weekend’s Port Fish Days parade in Port Washington alongside Lake Michigan sprawled over the curb to observe the Milwaukee Dancing Grannies; a trampoline act; and a stream of shiny Corvettes and firetrucks. Whether or not they wished to be or not, voters who stated “Tammy sucks” had been sandwiched subsequent to those that wished to see her run for president.
“Is Hovde that man who’s from California?” requested 59-year-old Cheryl, who didn’t need to give her full title.
“He’s from Wisconsin,” yelled one other girl sitting a number of chairs away.
Baldwin’s technique has relied on defining Hovde earlier than he defines himself. In addition to going after his California connections (he’s the CEO of Sunwest Financial institution and owns a house in Laguna Seaside), her marketing campaign can be attacking him on the air for a string of controversial feedback – together with saying that the majority nursing residence sufferers aren’t in a condition to vote.
Hovde, who’s additionally CEO of a distinguished Madison-based growth firm bearing his title, has to this point poured $13 million of his cash into his Senate marketing campaign – his second after an unsuccessful bid in 2012. He’s responded to Baldwin’s adverts along with his personal spots laying out his Wisconsin roots.
However like many GOP challengers this 12 months making an attempt to catch as much as Trump’s ballot numbers, Hovde can be making an attempt to nationalize the race. After operating an ad pressuring Baldwin to say the place she stood on Biden after his disastrous debate efficiency (she by no means publicly known as for the president to bow out of the race), he has pivoted to making an attempt to tie her to the administration, specifically Harris, on inflation and the border. “We deserve higher than leaders who bob alongside whereas America crumbles,” the narrator in one Hovde ad says over footage of the vp laughing, with a Baldwin bobblehead that includes all through the spot.
It stays to be seen how that may play out. The Hovde marketing campaign didn’t make him obtainable to reporters within the state final weekend and didn’t reply to CNN’s subsequent inquiries concerning the race.
On the Republican Nationwide Conference in Milwaukee earlier this month, the chair of the Senate GOP marketing campaign arm stated Hovde had closed the hole in his race greater than any of their different Senate recruits, particularly touting his potential to get on TV early due to self-funding. Nonetheless, a Fox News poll launched Friday confirmed Baldwin main Hovde 54% to 43% amongst registered Wisconsin voters, whereas there was no clear chief within the presidential race.
At the very least a number of attendees on the parade in Port Washington – which falls in one of many three GOP-leaning “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) within the Milwaukee space – stated they had been voting for Trump as a result of they had been Republicans, however hadn’t made up their minds concerning the Senate race but.
That sort of indecision creates an crucial for Hovde to consolidate the GOP base – and a chance for Baldwin to peel off a few of these voters.
Working her approach down the refreshment line on the Port Fish Days competition after the parade, Baldwin didn’t skip a beat when she bought to Patrick Barnett, who was carrying a Trump polo shirt. He bought a handshake and pleasant dialog.
“I like her, and she or he has carried out a variety of good issues,” stated Barnett, 65, of close by Mequon. “However her social gathering has carried out an excessive amount of to outweigh that.”
Reached by cellphone on Friday, Barnett stated that the method by which Harris ascended to the highest of the ticket solely confirmed his distaste for the Democratic Social gathering.
He recalled voting for Baldwin at the least as soon as earlier than and praised her for serving to go bipartisan laws. “And truthfully not voting for her after that wasn’t actually on her – it was extra, like I say, to do with the social gathering,” he added.
However this 12 months, he’s taken difficulty with the tone of a few of Baldwin’s adverts going after Hovde’s previous statements – together with one that includes a farmer saying, “Eric Hovde, what the hell is mistaken with this man?”
Some 170 miles west of Port Washington, near the Iowa border, the chatter on the Grant County Democratic picnic gave approach to chants of “Tammy, Tammy, Tammy” as quickly because the senator walked into the room on July 19, two days earlier than Biden dropped out of the race.
Baldwin’s supporters in Platteville – a metropolis that backed Biden however lies in a county that pivoted from Barack Obama to Trump – had been fired up, even when there was hesitation about whether or not Biden might win Wisconsin.
“I give him a 50-50 shot,” stated 72-year-old Tom Caywood, who didn’t need Biden to step apart. (“Don’t the voters have some say on this?” he requested.) However reached by cellphone per week later, Caywood stated Biden did the precise factor — even when he doesn’t just like the strain he thinks the social gathering placed on him.
And he likes Harris. “She’s very conversant in the position, sturdy girl, and she or he’s bought a authorized background,” he stated of the previous California legal professional basic. He likes what she might imply for Baldwin and different down-ballot Democrats too: “Likelihood is, in the event that they’re going to vote for her for president, they’ll in all probability simply vote straight ticket.”
Tracey Roberts stated she wished Biden to make his personal choice, however that the presidential race was too shut for consolation. “I’m very happy,” the 66-year-old Platteville resident stated by cellphone per week later, after Biden’s exit from the race. “I believe it’ll actually change the keenness degree – among the many folks I do know, it’s a lot larger.”
Native events are feeling it, too.
“The quantity of enthusiasm I’ve seen is unprecedented,” stated William Garcia, the Democratic Social gathering chair for Wisconsin’s third Congressional District, which incorporates Grant County and is certainly one of simply two US Home seats seen as aggressive within the state. “I’ve had dozens of individuals contacting us to volunteer. I’ve had folks donating cash to the native social gathering with out us even asking.”
Garcia, who additionally chairs the La Crosse County Democratic Social gathering, stated he sees that pleasure flowing each methods on the Democratic poll.
“Baldwin doesn’t want presidential coattails to win right here in Wisconsin,” he stated Friday.
“However I believe that lots of people who had been going to help Baldwin – these sort of undecided swing voters who had been positively going to help Baldwin however weren’t but determined concerning the high of the ticket – I believe they’re way more prone to go for Harris now.”