CNN
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We’ve heard rather a lot concerning the teams of voters that Kamala Harris seems to be struggling with — or not less than not doing in addition to Joe Biden did with them 4 years in the past. But, the vp has a small nationwide edge over Donald Trump. How is that attainable?
It seems that Harris can also be doing significantly nicely for a Democrat amongst teams with whom latest presidential nominees of her occasion have fared poorly.
One such group is senior residents. Harris often is the first Democrat to hold voters aged 65 and older since Al Gore in 2000.
Check out the latest nationwide polls. The CNN/SSRS poll out this week discovered Harris main the previous president 50% to 46% amongst senior residents. Our survey isn’t an outlier. The common ballot has Harris up by 3 factors over Trump amongst seniors.
This can be a marked turnaround from earlier than Biden dropped out of the race in July and from the final estimates from 2020. Each the polling common from earlier this yr and the post-election findings from 2020 had Trump up by 4 factors over Biden amongst voters who had been 65 or over.
The truth that Harris is doing higher with seniors than different Democrats earlier than her isn’t the largest shock. Biden did significantly higher with older voters in 2020 than Barack Obama did in 2012, regardless of an analogous nationwide efficiency amongst all voters.
Nonetheless, any inroads with seniors would come at a obligatory time for Harris, who’s struggling a bit — for a Democrat — among young voters within the common nationwide ballot.
Whereas no marketing campaign needs to lose voters, a commerce of youthful for older voters is doubtlessly an excellent one for Harris. There are more senior citizens than adults beneath 30 in America.
Furthermore, older Individuals punch above their weight as a result of they’re extra more likely to be registered to vote and to solid a poll. Recent polling from The New York Instances/Siena School put seniors at about 29% of the voters, in contrast with solely about 13% for voters beneath 30.
Though the precise math differs relying on the state, the overall concept that older voters make up a a lot bigger share of the voters than youthful voters is true within the swing states as nicely.
And the facility of the older voting bloc in contrast with the youngest one is simply rising. Again in 1980, for instance, 22% of the voters was beneath 30. Simply 17% had been seniors, based on estimates for the US Census Bureau. By 2000, seniors had been a bigger share (at 20%) than these beneath 30.
After all, it’s attainable that the pre-election polling isn’t correct. 4 years in the past, there have been signs that older voters had been shifting to develop into extra Democratic. Trump would go on to win them, although by a smaller margin than one might need anticipated given the nationwide vote margin.
The polling 4 years in the past, nevertheless, instructed that Biden was doing higher than the common Democrat amongst youthful voters as nicely, which could be very completely different from now. However, because it turned out, the polling overestimated Biden’s standing amongst most voting teams.
Apparently, this potential age depolarization among the many oldest and youngest segments of the voters comes after we’re seeing racial depolarization as well. Trump is doing nicely for a Republican amongst Black and Hispanic voters, simply as Harris is doing higher than Biden was amongst White voters.
I point out the racial depolarization as a result of the mathematics is analogous for Harris. Like with age demographics, she is dropping help amongst teams of voters who make up a smaller share of the voters (Black and Hispanic voters) and appears to be gaining with a much bigger group (White voters).
That trade-off proper now could be working nicely sufficient for Harris within the polls. The query is whether or not it should proceed to work for her or whether or not Trump’s inroads amongst youthful, Black and Hispanic voters will overwhelm any positive factors Harris has had with White and older voters.
No matter what finally ends up occurring, it does seem to be there’s an excellent probability we see an voters that’s much less divided amongst sure key demographics than we’re used to seeing.