CNN
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Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a large margin amongst Black doubtless voters, in keeping with a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, however nonetheless falls in need of Joe Biden’s profitable 2020 margins with this group. But the ballot means that Black doubtless voters at present supporting Trump or third-party candidates will not be as locked into their decisions as these Black doubtless voters who again the vp.
CNN’s newest ballot finds Harris main Trump by 63 factors amongst Black doubtless voters, 79% to 16%. That’s a substantial enchancment over Biden’s 46-point benefit over Trump amongst registered voters in CNN’s June ballot, which was its final with the president on the prime of the ticket. However that benefit falls in need of the Biden-Harris marketing campaign’s 75-point margin amongst Black voters, in keeping with exit polls from 2020.
Since Harris’ entrance into the race, enthusiasm amongst Black voters concerning the election seems to have grown. Within the newest ballot, 79% of Black registered voters say they might positively vote, up from 68% within the June ballot. For voters total, that stood at 82% within the newest ballot, about the identical as in June. Black voters now are simply as doubtless as different voters to say this can be very necessary that they, personally, vote (each at 63%), whereas in June, Black registered voters had been much less more likely to say the identical (57% amongst Black voters, 66% total).
Harris’ enchancment over Biden’s margins from earlier this 12 months comes because the ballot finds broad assist for her from the 40% of Black doubtless voters who view Biden’s presidency as a failure – Harris leads Trump 65% to 31% amongst these voters.
The ballot suggests Trump’s enhancements amongst Black voters relative to 2020 are pushed largely by Black voters beneath the age of 60. Harris leads amongst Black voters aged 60 and over by 87 factors, nearly an identical to Biden’s 85-point margin in 2020, in keeping with exit polls for a similar group. This shrinks to a 55-point lead for Harris amongst Black voters youthful than 60 (Biden received this group by 71 factors in 2020, in keeping with exit polls). Trump performs finest amongst Black doubtless voters youthful than 40, with 22% assist.
Nonetheless, CNN’s ballot means that Harris has the potential to enhance her margins. Her supporters are broadly locked in and unlikely to shift within the race – 92% of Black doubtless voters who assist Harris say their minds are already made up. However amongst these backing different candidates, a 3rd say they could but change their thoughts.
Harris can be typically seen extra favorably amongst Black registered voters in contrast with registered voters total, even after accounting for Black voters’ overwhelming Democratic lean. Almost 8 in 10 Black voters view Harris favorably, and Black Democrats view Harris barely extra positively than others within the occasion, whereas Black voters exterior the Democratic Social gathering supply way more constructive views of her than do independents or Republicans of different races.
Black voters who don’t contemplate themselves Democrats are extra doubtless than non-Democrats of different racial backgrounds to say that Harris has improved their view of the Democratic Social gathering; that they might be proud or excited if she wins the election; and that her views are typically mainstream, with Black Democratic voters providing comparable or modestly extra constructive views than others of their occasion. Amongst non-Democrats, Black voters additionally price Harris as extra aligned with their imaginative and prescient of a president than do different voters throughout all of the attributes examined within the ballot, together with temperament, potential to grasp the issues of individuals like themselves and management expertise.
That carries over to views of Trump too. Non-Democratic Black voters usually tend to view Trump’s presidency as a failure than different voters who share their partisan perspective and are much less more likely to belief Trump over Harris on dealing with every of the problems examined within the ballot, together with the financial system and immigration.
Whereas Black doubtless voters are largely targeted on the identical points because the broader citizens, the CNN polling does discover some variations amongst Democrats. Black doubtless voters are simply as doubtless as all different teams to contemplate the financial system their prime challenge (41%). Democratic Black doubtless voters, nonetheless, are twice as doubtless as Democratic doubtless voters total to contemplate the financial system their prime challenge (42%, in contrast with 19%). Democratic Black doubtless voters are additionally much less apt than Democratic doubtless voters total to say that defending democracy or abortion and reproductive rights are their prime challenge.
When requested which financial challenge is most necessary to them, Black voters throughout the political spectrum are typically aligned with the general citizens and put inflation on the prime of the listing. However Black doubtless voters are extra doubtless than different voters to call jobs and wages as the highest financial challenge and fewer more likely to say federal spending.
Almost 9 in 10 Black registered voters say the political system in america is in want of a significant overhaul or main reforms, and a big majority (85%) say that the federal authorities doesn’t do sufficient for Black Individuals. Roughly half of Black voters (47%) say that the federal authorities does each an excessive amount of for White Individuals and too little for Black Individuals. Nonetheless, Black registered voters are extra doubtless than the broader citizens to say that they’re happy with the affect individuals like themselves have on the political course of (52%, in contrast with 38% total).
The CNN Ballot was carried out by SSRS on-line and by phone September 19-22, 2024, amongst 2,074 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Doubtless voters embody all registered voters within the ballot weighted for his or her predicted probability of voting on this 12 months’s election. The survey included an oversample of Black registered voters to succeed in a complete of 579; this group has been weighted to its correct measurement throughout the inhabitants for all survey outcomes. Outcomes for the complete pattern of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 proportion factors; it’s the identical amongst doubtless voters and bigger for subgroups. Outcomes amongst Black registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 7.8 proportion factors; amongst Black doubtless voters, it’s plus or minus 7.7 proportion factors.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this report.