CNN
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The race for the White House hogs many of the consideration in a presidential election yr, relegating the race for Congress to ugly stepsister standing.
However lately, we’ve all discovered how important down-ballot races might be in shaping American coverage. That’s very true for the Senate, which is answerable for the confirmations of presidency officers and Supreme Court nominees.
On this yr’s battle for the Senate, like so many cycles earlier than, we have now the same competing forces: The election fundamentals favor Republicans, whereas candidate high quality seems to favor Democrats, who at present maintain a slender majority within the chamber.
For now, although, it seems even flawed Republican candidates possible gained’t be capable to cease their aspect from successful Senate management.
Democrats face two “M” issues: the mathematics and the map.
Let’s begin with the mathematics. Republicans want a internet achieve of 1 seat to win the Senate if Donald Trump wins the presidency (together with his vice chairman casting any tie-breaking votes). They want a internet achieve of two seats for a majority no matter who wins the presidential election.
Republicans have a number of choices to internet these one or two seats. Senate Democrats (together with independents who caucus with them) maintain 23 seats up for election this yr; Republicans maintain 11.
This brings us to the map.
Eight of the 23 Democratic seats up for election this yr are in states both the place Trump gained in 2016 or the place he’s up by at the very least 5 factors in the polls now. 5 of them are in states the place Trump holds at the very least a 5-point benefit. Three are in states the place Trump gained by at the very least 8 factors in 2016 and 2020 and the place the incumbent senator is the one Democrat in nonjudicial statewide workplace.
A kind of three is West Virginia, the place Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. Trump gained the state by 39 factors in 2020, and each respectable nonpartisan handicapping outlet views the seat as a secure Republican pickup.
There are solely two Republican Senate seats being focused by Democrats – Florida and Texas, which Trump carried by single digits in 2020. However the GOP incumbents in each states at present lead their Democratic opponents by double digits.
Each different Republican-held Senate seat on the poll this yr is in a state the place GOP presidential candidates have dominated since 2012.
It’s no surprise that my colleague Simone Pathe had just one Republican seat (Texas) on her most up-to-date listing of the ten Senate seats most probably to flip this yr, and that was at No. 10.
However is the race for the Senate actually over if Republicans simply win West Virginia?
No, we will’t name it simply but, and it’s not simply because we’re nonetheless months earlier than the final election. It’s as a result of if President Joe Biden does win – a real possibility – it’s not completely clear which second Senate seat Republicans will decide as much as achieve management.
Among the many eight Democratic Senate seats talked about above, there are not any states past West Virginia the place the polls (or skilled judgment) present Republicans with a strong lead, regardless of the basics favoring their occasion this yr. Democratic Senate candidates appear to be at the very least tied or forward in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Democratic Senate candidates’ margins outran Biden’s within the 4 states – Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that The New York Times and Siena College recently polled. And we’re not simply speaking by just a little bit; we’re speaking about them doing higher than Biden by at the very least 5 factors in these 4 states amongst possible voters.
A key motive the Democratic candidates are doing so a lot better than Biden is as a result of they’re well-liked. We all know from current polls that Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin had constructive internet favorability rankings, whereas Biden’s numbers have been properly below water in these states.
In the meantime in Arizona, Republicans seem poised to appoint Kari Lake for Senate. Lake was final seen dropping a really winnable gubernatorial election in 2022 and her excessive unfavorable rating with state voters was a giant motive why Inside Elections recently shifted its ranking of the race within the Democratic path.
After all, Democratic Senate candidates outrunning the highest of the ticket is nothing new. Republicans have memorably lost loads of very winnable seats over the previous decade and a half with dangerous candidates (see 2010 with Nevada’s Sharron Angle and 2012 with Missouri’s Todd Akin).
Two years in the past, Republicans had a internet lack of one Senate seat as Democrats retained control of the chamber in a midterm election when Biden had approval rankings within the low 40s. Once more, the GOP ran a number of unpopular candidates (e.g., Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania), whereas Democrats ran comparatively well-liked ones (e.g., Mark Kelly in Arizona)
Again to the mathematics and map
Nonetheless, it’s onerous to disregard Republicans’ benefit in 2024 with the mathematics and the map. Senate Democrats haven’t any margin for error, and they’re unlikely to win all seven of their seats at present seen as aggressive.
The previous two presidential cycles inform the story: Only one state (Maine in 2020) voted otherwise within the presidential and Senate races.
Trump possible holds a cushty polling benefit of at the very least 5 factors over Biden proper now in Arizona, Nevada, Montana and Ohio. His lead in Montana is probably going within the double digits. Placing apart the polls, Montana and Ohio weren’t aggressive on the presidential degree in both 2016 or 2020 and sure gained’t be this fall.
For Democrats to have any likelihood of holding the Senate, Republicans must lose all these Senate races. Then they’d need to lose in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – all states that Trump may very properly win once more.
Republicans would additionally need to lose in Maryland – the place Biden will virtually actually win in a blowout, however the place GOP former Gov. Larry Hogan has been aggressive within the polling.
Republicans could also be liable to blowing it with regards to Senate races. However I’m not even positive the Washington Generals of Senate races can blow this one.
As a memorable “Simpsons” episode as soon as put it, Republicans could finally be “due.”