Home Speaker Mike Johnson is overseeing one of many smallest Home majorities in historical past as Congress confronts upcoming battles over authorities funding and contentious fights over immigration and impeachment.
Republicans presently management simply 219 seats whereas Democrats management 213 after Ohio GOP Rep. Invoice Johnson resigned from Congress earlier this month to take a job as president of Youngstown State College.
The razor-thin majority presents an infinite problem for the speaker, leaving him with virtually no room for error as he navigates calls for from competing wings of his social gathering.
There are presently three vacancies within the Home following Johnson’s departure, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s resignation from Congress on the finish of final 12 months and the expulsion of former GOP Rep. George Santos of New York.
Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins of New York has additionally introduced plans to go away Congress, and will probably be stepping down on February 2, his workplace informed CNN.
A particular election to fill the seat beforehand held by Santos will happen on February 13. The race is anticipated to be aggressive and is a possible pickup alternative for Democrats.
Along with the tight margin, there’s all the time the chance that absences can additional impression the vote math.
Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise’s workplace has stated that he’ll work remotely till returning to Washington in February as he recovers from a stem cell transplant.
Republican Rep. Hal Rogers of Kentucky was hospitalized following a automobile accident earlier this month. His workplace subsequently introduced that he had progressed to bodily rehabilitation to help in his restoration.
The tight vote margin signifies that any particular person member has the potential to exert outsized affect and Johnson has ceaselessly felt stress from his proper flank.
Hardline conservatives have already proven that they will maintain main sway within the chamber with such a slim majority – most notably when a bunch of hardliners moved to oust McCarthy from the speakership in a historic and unprecedented vote final 12 months.
The precise measurement and scope of the far proper of the Home Republican Convention can fluctuate from situation to situation. A contingent of roughly a dozen hardliners staged a rebellion on the House floor earlier this month, taking down a procedural vote to point out opposition to a spending deal Johnson had reached with Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer.
The ever-shrinking margin has pressured Johnson to place payments straight onto the ground beneath a procedural transfer often known as suspension of the principles in sure cases as his proper flank has more and more taken to tanking rule votes on the ground in a present of protest, a dynamic that may probably proceed and will intensify.
However that technique compels the necessity for a two-thirds majority to move payments, requiring vital Democratic help, and additional alienating Johnson and the fitting wing of his convention.
In a single latest instance, the Home passed a short-term funding extension to avert a shutdown beneath suspension of the principles earlier this month. Home Republicans had been almost evenly divided within the vote, an indication of the deep rift throughout the convention. 100 and 7 Republicans voted for the invoice, whereas 106 voted in opposition to it. Way more Democrats than Republicans voted for the measure with 207 Democrats in favor and simply two opposed.
Along with dealing with stress from conservatives, Johnson should additionally stability the pursuits of extra reasonable members from battleground districts who’re on the frontlines of the bulk and who will probably be beneath intense scrutiny throughout the 2024 election 12 months.
There have been 18 Republicans in Home districts that President Joe Biden received in 2020 – a quantity that’s now right down to 17 after the expulsion of Santos. The destiny of those politically susceptible members will probably be key as to if the GOP can maintain onto its majority.