CNN
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If the New Hampshire major outcomes are available on Tuesday night time wanting like the final CNN/UNH poll results released Sunday, there may be going to be one query hanging over the race for the Republican presidential nomination: Is that this race over?
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has stated plainly that “the street is rarely going to cease right here in New Hampshire.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has indicated that he intends on competing for delegates a minimum of via the month of March.
However it’s onerous to think about how Haley and DeSantis proceed to fund their campaigns at a aggressive stage, by no means thoughts convincing Republican voters and energy brokers that there’s a rationale to proceed onward following sizable back-to-back victories for former President Donald Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire the place the previous president collects a majority of the votes and the delegates.
There has by no means been a non-incumbent Republican candidate for president who has received each Iowa and New Hampshire. In truth, in fashionable presidential marketing campaign historical past — for the reason that Iowa caucuses have served because the official kickoff, adopted by the New Hampshire major — the 2 individuals who have received each contests outright have been Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry, each of whom went on to turn out to be their occasion’s nominee.
Within the new CNN/UNH ballot, one discovering stands out as a very telling component on this race: When probably GOP major voters have been requested for his or her total opinion of the candidates, Trump’s favorability ranking was in a unique stratosphere than that of his rivals.
Trump scores a 56% favorable ranking from probably Republican major voters, in contrast with a 36% unfavorable ranking. That could be a internet optimistic 20 factors favorable benefit for the previous president.
Haley and DeSantis are each underwater. Extra GOP major voters have an unfavorable view of them than have a positive view of them.
The relentless hammering on DeSantis by Trump and his allies for the higher a part of the final yr and their more moderen assaults on Haley have had their meant impact — extra detrimental rankings for Trump’s two foremost rivals.
However the strategic resolution by DeSantis and Haley to sharpen their criticisms of Trump solely on the very finish of those contests can be on show right here.
The ever-present concern that attacking Trump immediately would push away a few of the very voters Haley and DeSantis spent a lot of 2023 making an attempt to draw has left Trump’s recognition with Republicans largely unscathed, if not improved.
Maybe there was no approach for any candidate to actually chip away at Trump’s unbelievable bond with nearly all of Republican voters, however it’s also clear that not having tried to do this for the complete yr earlier than the voting started leaves these non-Trump candidates with very restricted choices for a path ahead.